1998Practice founded4,000+Client engagements$41.2 billionEvaluated project valueSince 1982Institutional underwritingMAI · ASA-GC · BCA · CMEAIn-house valuation designations
Wert-Berater, Inc. — Independent Feasibility Study Consultants
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Independent Feasibility Studies · Healthcare & Medical Facilities

CCRC & Independent Living Community Feasibility Studies

Prepared for lenders, CDCs, and federal agencies to SBA SOP 50 10 8, USDA 7 CFR Part 5001, and conventional underwriting standards. Fiduciary duty runs to the lender and the agency, never the borrower. 4,000+ engagements since 1998 covering $41.2 billion in evaluated project value. So far in 2026: 41 engagements and $1.54 billion evaluated — 17 SBA, 11 USDA.

Watch: a short video overview — CCRC & Independent Living Community Feasibility Studies

The Feasibility Question

Continuing care retirement communities and independent living are real-estate-forward senior housing: residents arrive by choice rather than need, which makes demand discretionary, marketing-driven, and sensitive to housing-market liquidity — the entry fee or rent is funded by a home sale more often than not. The study applies income-and-asset-qualified demand analysis, models the entry-fee or rental structure's actuarial and refund mechanics where applicable, and tests fill velocity against the segment's documented pace, since independent living fills slower than need-driven care and the carry must be funded.

Methodology

Qualified-household demand with housing-equity analysis for entry-fee models, competitive positioning across the local continuum, fill-curve modeling at documented absorption, actuarial review of continuing-care obligations where the contract creates them, and refund-liability treatment stated explicitly in the financial model.

Every Wert-Berater financial model is fully linked with no hardcoded values, so any reviewer can stress any input. Deliverables comprise a complete narrative report and the linked Excel model, with ten-year pro forma, sensitivity analysis at ±5, 10, and 15 percent, interest-rate stress from +0.5 to +3.0 percent, and ratio analysis benchmarked against RMA and IBISWorld data.

Lending Compliance

SBA engagements are prepared to SOP 50 10 8, including its debt-service-coverage minimums of 1.15x operating and 1.00x global. USDA engagements follow RD Staff Instruction 5001 across the Business & Industry, Community Facilities, REAP, and Value-Added Producer Grant programs. Conventional engagements are built to the lender's stated coverage standard, typically 1.20x. Entry-fee CCRCs are specialized credits typically routed through bond and conventional structures; rental independent living fits conventional and, at smaller scale, SBA frameworks.

Experience

The firm's assisted living and senior care feasibility, senior-housing and condominium sell-out practices converge here — demand qualification from one, absorption-and-carry discipline from the other. Independence is non-negotiable: determinations follow the evidence and are not revised under pressure, and studies are built to pass lender, agency, and third-party review without exception items.

Scope of a CCRC & Independent Living Community Feasibility Study

A feasibility study for this asset class must do more than confirm that older adults live in the trade area. It must demonstrate that a sufficient number of income-and-asset-qualified households exist, that those households can liquidate a primary residence to fund an entry fee or sustain a monthly rental, and that the project can reach stabilized occupancy before debt service erodes the reserve. The deliverables are structured to answer each of those questions in sequence, so a credit officer can follow the logic from raw demand to coverage ratio without leaving the document.

  • Income-and-asset-qualified household count by age cohort, tenure status, and housing-equity tier, sized to the specific fee or rent structure proposed
  • Penetration-rate analysis benchmarked against documented absorption for comparable communities in comparable markets
  • Competitive-supply inventory covering all licensed independent living, CCRC, and adjacent assisted living properties within the defined primary and secondary trade areas
  • Fill-curve and carry model projecting monthly unit absorption, pre-opening costs, and interest carry through stabilization
  • Actuarial and refund-liability summary for Type A, B, and C continuing-care contracts where applicable, with explicit treatment in the pro forma
  • Ten-year linked pro forma with sensitivity tables at ±5, 10, and 15 percent and interest-rate stress from +0.5 to +3.0 percent
  • Explicit statement of conditions identifying the assumptions on which the favorable determination rests and the thresholds at which it would change

How the Demand Analysis Is Built for CCRC & Independent Living Community Feasibility Studies

Demand for independent living and continuing care is not derived from population counts alone. The analysis begins with age-qualified households — typically those headed by a person 75 or older, though the threshold shifts with the project’s target profile — and then applies successive filters for income adequacy, asset adequacy, and housing-equity availability. Each filter draws on a distinct data layer.

Income and asset thresholds are tested against the proposed fee or rent structure using current-year household income estimates from licensed demographic data providers and cross-referenced against Social Security Administration benefit schedules and local property-tax records where accessible. Housing-equity availability is estimated from American Community Survey tenure and home-value distributions, adjusted for local median sale prices from county recorder and multiple-listing aggregates. State licensing registries and certificate-of-need databases — where the state maintains them — provide the foundation for the competitive-supply inventory; those records are supplemented by on-site visits, operator disclosure statements filed with state insurance or health departments for Type A contracts, and trade-association directories. Planned supply is identified through municipal building-permit records, zoning-board minutes, and published bond-offering documents for nonprofit CCRCs. The result is a demand estimate expressed as qualified households per stabilized unit — a ratio that can be compared directly against the absorption history of comparable projects and stress-tested against adverse housing-market conditions that would reduce home-sale proceeds and delay move-in decisions.

The Assumptions That Decide the Outcome in Independent Living & CCRC Feasibility Studies

Four inputs account for the majority of variance in the coverage ratio for this project type. Each is tested explicitly rather than accepted at face value, because a small movement in any one of them can shift a project from feasible to marginal or from marginal to infeasible.

  • Monthly absorption rate: independent living fills materially slower than assisted living or memory care because the decision is discretionary and contingent on a home sale; the study documents the pace achieved by comparable stabilized communities and applies it without optimism
  • Entry-fee collection timing and refund structure: for Type A and Type B contracts, the timing of fee receipt relative to unit delivery and the refund obligation upon departure affect both liquidity and the actuarial reserve requirement; both are modeled explicitly
  • Housing-market liquidity: the proportion of prospective residents who must sell a primary residence before committing is estimated from tenure data, and the model stress-tests a scenario in which home-sale timelines extend and a share of qualified households defer entry
  • Operating expense escalation: labor is the dominant cost line; the model applies documented regional wage trends rather than a generic inflation factor, and tests coverage at escalation rates above the base case
  • Stabilized occupancy assumption: the target occupancy rate is benchmarked against state licensing data and trade-association survey results for the relevant product type, not assumed at a round number
  • Continuing-care actuarial reserve adequacy: where the contract creates a long-term health-care obligation, the study states whether the proposed reserve methodology is consistent with actuarial guidance and flags any gap for lender review

What Lenders and Agencies Look for in CCRC & Independent Living Community Feasibility Studies

Credit officers at SBA, USDA, and conventional lenders approach this asset class with a consistent set of concerns, but the analytical framework each applies differs in important ways.

SBA lenders working under SOP 50 10 8 require an independent feasibility study for projects of this type when the loan size or complexity triggers that threshold. The study must support a debt-service-coverage ratio of at least 1.15x on an operating basis and 1.00x on a global basis; because independent living fill curves are long, the SBA-oriented analysis pays particular attention to the pre-stabilization cash-flow gap and how it is funded. Rental independent living at smaller scale is the more common SBA structure; entry-fee CCRCs are rarely SBA credits.

USDA Business & Industry and Community Facilities programs serve rural senior-housing projects where conventional capital is thin. The RD Staff Instruction 5001 framework requires the study to address market need, financial feasibility, and management capacity; the demand analysis must be grounded in the specific rural trade area rather than imported from a metropolitan comparable.

Conventional lenders underwriting to a 1.20x coverage standard focus heavily on stabilization timeline risk and the adequacy of the interest reserve. For entry-fee CCRCs, they also scrutinize the refund-liability waterfall and whether the actuarial reserve is funded from operations or from a separate pledge. The study addresses each of these angles in the narrative and in the financial model, so the credit officer does not have to reconstruct the logic from scattered exhibits.

Cost, Timeline, and How a CCRC & Independent Living Feasibility Study Engagement Runs

The fee is fixed and quoted in writing within one business day of receiving a project description. It does not change based on the finding, the loan amount, or the complexity of the refund structure — and no portion of it is contingent on a favorable determination. That structure is not incidental: a contingent fee creates an incentive to reach a predetermined conclusion, which is incompatible with the fiduciary duty the firm owes to the lender and the reviewing agency.

Standard delivery is ten to fifteen business days from the date a complete data room is received. For this asset class, a complete data room includes the proposed fee or rent schedule, the draft continuing-care contract or residency agreement, the site plan and unit mix, three years of operating history for any existing phases, the operator’s management agreement, and any state licensing correspondence. Rush delivery is available when the credit timeline requires it.

Every engagement is published to a secure client portal. The linked Excel model — with no hardcoded values — remains live in the portal and recalculates when inputs change, so a lender who wants to run a stress scenario does not need to request a revised report. The narrative report, the pro forma, the sensitivity tables, and the explicit statement of conditions are all accessible in the same portal environment. Wert-Berater has completed 4,000+ engagements representing $41.2 billion in evaluated project value since 1998; the process is documented, repeatable, and built to move at the pace a credit committee requires.

Frequently asked questions

How much does a CCRC or independent living feasibility study cost?

The fee is fixed, quoted in writing within one business day, and does not vary based on the finding or the loan amount. No portion is contingent on outcome. Because scope varies by project complexity — a single-phase rental community differs materially from a multi-contract entry-fee CCRC — the firm prices each engagement individually after reviewing the project description.

How long does it take to complete an independent living community feasibility study?

Standard delivery is ten to fifteen business days from receipt of a complete data room. For this asset class the data room must include the proposed fee or rent schedule, the draft residency or continuing-care contract, the unit mix, operating history for any existing phases, and state licensing correspondence. Rush delivery is available when a credit deadline requires a shorter window.

What makes CCRCs and independent living communities hard to underwrite compared with other senior housing?

Three factors distinguish this asset class. First, demand is discretionary and contingent on a home sale, so fill velocity is slower and harder to predict. Second, entry-fee contracts create refund liabilities and actuarial reserve obligations that do not exist in need-driven care. Third, stabilization timelines are long enough that the interest-carry assumption materially affects whether the project reaches coverage — a miscalibrated absorption rate can turn a feasible project into a marginal one.

Will an SBA lender accept a CCRC feasibility study prepared to SOP 50 10 8?

Wert-Berater prepares SBA engagements specifically to SOP 50 10 8, including its debt-service-coverage minimums of 1.15x operating and 1.00x global. The study is structured so the lender and SBA reviewer can trace every conclusion back to a documented assumption. The firm does not imply or guarantee loan approval; that determination rests with the lender and the agency.

What is the difference between a Type A, Type B, and Type C continuing-care contract, and does the feasibility study address all three?

Type A contracts bundle lifetime health-care services into the entry fee, creating the largest actuarial obligation. Type B contracts offer partial coverage with additional per-service charges. Type C contracts are fee-for-service with no prepaid health-care guarantee. The feasibility study identifies the contract type proposed, models the refund-liability mechanics accordingly, and states explicitly whether the actuarial reserve methodology is consistent with the obligation created.

Can the feasibility study be used for both a USDA Rural Development application and a conventional loan package?

Yes. The study is prepared to the more demanding standard when dual use is anticipated — typically USDA RD Staff Instruction 5001 — and the financial model is structured so lender-specific coverage thresholds can be tested without rebuilding the analysis. The linked Excel model recalculates when inputs change, so a conventional lender applying a 1.20x standard can verify coverage directly in the portal.

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Legal disclosure. Wert-Berater, Inc. offices are mailing addresses only. Following the COVID-19 pandemic the firm has elected to work remotely; its office locations receive mail and are not staffed for visitors or in-person meetings. Headquarters mailing address: 1968 South Coast Hwy, Ste 2382, Laguna Beach, CA 92651.

Wert-Berater, Inc. is an independent provider of feasibility studies and other related services. The firm does not provide financing or equity investment advice, and does not arrange, broker, or place debt or equity capital of any kind.

All appraisal assignments are performed by Bruce E. Jones, MAI, ASA-GC, BCA, CMEA, a member of the Appraisal Institute since 2006, a staff member of Wert-Berater, Inc. and owner of Special Purpose Realty Valuation.

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