Wert-Berater, Inc. is an independent fuel distribution feasibility study consultant preparing lender-, SBA-, and USDA-facing studies for wholesale jobbers, bulk plants, cardlock and fleet fueling operations, propane and heating-oil distributors, and commercial and agricultural fuel delivery businesses. These are volume-and-pennies credits: profitability is measured in cents per gallon across large volumes, so the analysis is built on delivered gallons, margin per gallon by product and customer channel, route and fleet cost, and the working capital that fuel inventory and customer credit consume.
This engagement addresses wholesale and commercial distribution. Retail forecourt economics are a different analysis with a different demand model. Fiduciary duty runs to the lender and the agency, never the borrower. Fixed fee quoted within one business day; standard delivery in ten to fifteen business days from a complete data room. 4,000+ engagements since 1998 covering $41.2 billion in evaluated project value. So far in 2026: 41 engagements and $1.54 billion evaluated — 17 SBA, 11 USDA.
Fuel-distribution feasibility is volume, margin, and logistics: the commercial, agricultural, and retail accounts behind gallon projections, cents-per-gallon margin by channel, delivery-fleet economics, and the bulk-plant and cardlock infrastructure the model capitalizes. Propane and heating-oil operations add seasonal working-capital cycles and degree-day demand exposure. Customer concentration and contract terms receive direct treatment.
The analysis combines channel-level gallon build-up, margin benchmarks from industry sources, fleet cost modeling, and weather-normalized demand for seasonal fuels. Coverage is tested under margin compression and volume-loss scenarios.
Every Wert-Berater financial model is fully linked with no hardcoded values, so any reviewer can stress any input. Deliverables comprise a complete narrative report and the linked Excel model, with ten-year pro forma, sensitivity analysis at ±5, 10, and 15 percent, interest-rate stress from +0.5 to +3.0 percent, and ratio analysis benchmarked against RMA and IBISWorld data.
SBA engagements are prepared to SOP 50 10 8, including its debt-service-coverage minimums of 1.15x operating and 1.00x global. USDA engagements follow RD Staff Instruction 5001 across the Business & Industry, Community Facilities, REAP, and Value-Added Producer Grant programs. Conventional engagements are built to the lender's stated coverage standard, typically 1.20x. Oil, gas, and heavy-industrial projects reach us through conventional and institutional lending most commonly, with USDA B&I applicable to qualifying rural energy and processing assets and SBA programs serving owner-operator support businesses; each study is prepared to the corresponding compliance standard, with environmental and regulatory conditions precedent stated plainly.
Wert-Berater has not published a completed wholesale fuel distribution or bulk plant engagement as a public case study, and none is claimed here. The firm's published fuel work is retail rather than wholesale — engagements such as a fuel, convenience and liquor feasibility study in Madison, Alabama and a gas station feasibility study in Mountain Home, Idaho — and retail forecourt work is not the same as wholesale distribution, so it is identified for what it is. What carries across is direct experience with fuel volume forecasting, cents-per-gallon margin analysis, and supply-agreement review, applied within the discipline used on all 4,000+ engagements since 1998: fully linked models, sourced assumptions, and coverage tested under downside cases. Independence is non-negotiable, and determinations are not revised under pressure.
A fuel distribution feasibility study consultant establishes the gallons the business will actually deliver, the margin it will earn on them, and whether that margin covers fixed cost, fleet capital, and debt service through a fuel price cycle. Because gross revenue in this sector moves with commodity price while profit does not, the analysis is built in gallons and cents per gallon rather than in sales dollars — a distinction that matters, since a distributor's revenue can double on a price spike while gross profit stays flat and working capital deteriorates.
The study examines the customer base delivering those gallons, the supply agreements governing product cost, the delivery fleet and routes that carry it, and the receivable and inventory position the business must fund. This engagement covers wholesale, commercial, and fleet fueling operations. Retail forecourt projects are analyzed separately through gas station and c-store feasibility studies, and highway fuel and amenity sites through travel center and truck stop feasibility studies, because their demand models and margin structures are materially different.
A petroleum distribution & bulk fuel feasibility study covers every layer of the business that a lender must underwrite before committing capital: the gallon-volume build-up by delivery channel, the bulk-plant or cardlock infrastructure being financed, fleet acquisition and operating costs, and the working-capital cycle that seasonal fuels impose. The study does not stop at the income statement; it traces cash from the pump to debt service and tests whether coverage holds when margins compress or volumes fall.
Every element feeds a single fully linked Excel workbook with no hardcoded values, so any reviewer can isolate and stress any input without breaking the model.
Volume is built from the customer base, not from market size. The study schedules delivered gallons by customer segment — commercial and construction accounts, agricultural customers, municipal and school fleets, dealer and jobber supply, cardlock users, and residential heating customers where applicable — and examines the tenure, contract status, and historical volume of each material account. For an acquisition, historical delivery records establish the baseline; for a startup or expansion, projected accounts are assessed against what the business has actually secured in writing.
Retention is the variable most often assumed rather than analyzed. Fuel customers switch on price and service with low friction, and where volume is not contracted the study models attrition explicitly rather than holding the account base flat. Seasonality is built into the volume profile, particularly for heating fuel, propane, and agricultural demand, and the study identifies whether the business generates enough off-season cash flow to service debt through the trough rather than only on an annual average.
Margin is analyzed by product and by channel, because the spread on branded dealer supply, unbranded wholesale, cardlock, and delivered commercial fuel differ substantially. The study establishes the acquisition cost basis — rack price plus freight, less any supplier discount, rebate, or prompt-payment term — and the realized selling price by channel, then reports gross margin in cents per gallon against the business's own historical performance where records exist.
Supply agreements are read as executed. Branded supply contracts commonly carry volume commitments, image and facility obligations, and term or territorial restrictions that constrain the business and can trigger liability if volume falls short; those obligations are identified and their cost modeled. Where the pro forma depends on supplier rebates, incentive payments, or brand-conversion allowances, each is tied to the agreement that creates it and tested for whether it persists across the loan term or expires within it. Margin is stressed against the compression that occurs when rack prices rise faster than street prices.
Delivery cost per gallon determines whether volume is profitable, so the fleet is modeled on operating reality. The study examines truck and trailer count and configuration, drops per day, average drop size, round-trip distance from the terminal or bulk plant, and driver availability and cost including the commercial licensing and endorsement requirements that constrain hiring. Small drops at long distance can consume the entire margin on a gallon, and the study reports delivery cost by route type rather than as a single blended figure.
Where the business operates a bulk plant, its economics are analyzed directly: tank capacity by product, turns, throughput, loading rack capability, and the fixed operating cost the facility carries regardless of volume. Fleet capital is modeled with realistic replacement cycles and a maintenance reserve, and where vehicle economic life is shorter than the loan amortization, that mismatch is reported. Regulatory and environmental obligations attaching to fuel storage — tank compliance, spill prevention, and financial assurance — are quantified as operating cost.
Fuel distribution consumes working capital in proportion to commodity price, and this is the single most underestimated risk in the sector. The study models the cash conversion cycle explicitly: inventory days at the bulk plant and in transit, receivable days by customer segment, and payable terms from the supplier. When fuel prices rise sharply, the business must fund more expensive inventory and larger receivables simultaneously, and a profitable distributor can breach coverage on liquidity alone.
The study therefore tests the borrowing base and line-of-credit sizing against a defined price increase rather than at current cost, and reports whether committed facilities are sufficient. Customer credit risk is assessed directly, since distributors extend unsecured trade credit on a low-margin product: receivable ageing, bad-debt history, concentration among the largest accounts, and the effect on coverage of losing or writing off a major customer. Inventory price exposure and any hedging or fixed-price customer commitments are modeled for the mismatch they can create.
Demand for petroleum distribution is not drawn from a regional forecast; it is built account by account and corroborated by independent supply-side evidence. The counting method begins with the borrower's documented customer list, delivery records, and any executed or letter-of-intent contracts. Those volumes are then tested against observable market data rather than accepted at face value.
On the demand side, the study draws on state agricultural census data for farm-fuel consumption in the service territory, commercial and industrial establishment counts from economic-development databases, and traffic and fleet-size data for cardlock or retail locations. For propane and heating oil, degree-day records from NOAA weather stations anchor the weather-normalization model, and utility interconnection queues or gas-main extension maps help identify accounts that are structurally captive to liquid fuel.
On the supply side, state petroleum-dealer licensing registries and motor-fuel distributor permit databases identify licensed competitors operating in the same geography. Wholesale rack-price history from OPIS or equivalent trade sources establishes the margin environment the borrower must operate within. Where a new bulk plant is proposed, tank-wagon radius analysis and delivery-cost economics define the serviceable territory and the volume threshold at which the plant reaches efficient utilization. Competitive interviews and publicly available fleet-fuel contract awards supplement the registry data. The result is a demand conclusion the lender can trace to primary evidence rather than an industry growth rate.
Four inputs account for most of the variance in debt-service coverage for a fuel-distribution project. Each is identified explicitly in the study, sourced to the best available evidence, and subjected to the firm's standard sensitivity discipline before a determination is issued.
Because the model carries no hardcoded values, a reviewing credit officer can substitute any of these inputs and observe the coverage impact in real time through the secure client portal.
Inputs resolve into a fully linked model with no hardcoded values, producing a ten-year pro forma, annual and period debt-service coverage, and the coverage minimum applicable to the program — 1.15x operating and 1.00x global for SBA engagements under SOP 50 10 8, or the lender's stated standard, typically 1.20x, for conventional credits. Coverage is reported on gross profit rather than revenue, because revenue in this sector is a commodity-price artifact and tells a lender very little.
Sensitivity is run on delivered gallons, margin in cents per gallon, customer attrition and loss of the largest account, delivery cost per gallon, fuel price level and its working-capital effect, bad-debt rate, fleet replacement capital, and interest rate. The study identifies the breakeven gallons and the breakeven cents-per-gallon margin at which coverage reaches the lender's minimum, expressed against the volumes the business currently delivers so the result is directly testable.
Petroleum distribution sits at the intersection of commodity-price risk, customer-concentration risk, and environmental-liability risk — a combination that raises specific questions at each lending channel.
SBA lenders applying SOP 50 10 8 require a feasibility study when the project involves a change of ownership, a start-up, or an expansion that materially alters the revenue base. For fuel distributors, the agency's 1.15x operating and 1.00x global coverage minimums must be demonstrated after accounting for the full debt load of all obligors. Customer concentration receives heightened scrutiny: an account representing a disproportionate share of volume can trigger a conditions-precedent requirement around contract assignment or escrow.
USDA Business & Industry lenders apply RD Staff Instruction 5001 and are particularly attentive to rural service-territory documentation, environmental Phase I status for bulk-plant sites, and the borrower's demonstrated ability to service agricultural accounts through a full commodity-price cycle. REAP eligibility may apply where the distribution infrastructure supports rural energy end-users.
Conventional lenders typically require 1.20x coverage and place additional weight on the quality of the borrower's receivables, the age and condition of the delivery fleet, and the environmental indemnification structure for above-ground and underground storage tanks. Tank-age, secondary containment, and state-fund coverage are addressed as conditions in the study rather than footnoted. In all three channels, the study's fiduciary duty runs to the lender and the reviewing agency, not to the borrower, and no fee is contingent on the finding.
The engagement begins with a fixed fee quoted within one business day of inquiry. The fee does not change based on the finding, and no portion is contingent on loan approval or a favorable determination. That structure is the foundation of the independence that lenders and agencies rely on.
Work begins when the client delivers a complete data room. For a petroleum distribution project, that data room typically includes three years of historical financials, delivery records by account and channel, fleet schedules, bulk-plant site documentation, any executed customer contracts or letters of intent, and environmental reports for storage-tank assets. Incomplete data rooms are identified promptly so the sponsor can cure gaps before the clock starts.
Standard delivery is 10 to 15 business days from a complete data room. Rush delivery is available and is quoted at the time of engagement. The deliverable set includes the bound narrative report, the ten-year pro forma, sensitivity and interest-rate stress tables, ratio analysis benchmarked against RMA and IBISWorld data, and an explicit statement of conditions precedent — including any environmental, licensing, or contract conditions the lender must confirm before closing.
Upon completion, the financial model is published to a secure client portal where it remains live. Because no values are hardcoded, the lender's credit officer or the reviewing agency can enter revised assumptions — a different margin, a lost account, a rate increase — and the coverage ratios recalculate immediately. That transparency is standard on every Wert-Berater engagement, not a premium add-on.
Fuel distribution connects terminals to end users, and lenders frequently see it financed alongside upstream storage or downstream retail. These engagements address the adjacent intents.
The fee is fixed and quoted within one business day of inquiry. It does not vary based on the finding, and no portion is contingent on loan approval. Because scope varies by project size, channel complexity, and lending program, the firm provides a specific quote after a brief intake conversation rather than publishing a range that may not reflect your project.
Standard delivery is 10 to 15 business days from receipt of a complete data room. Rush delivery is available and is quoted at engagement. The most common cause of delay is an incomplete data room — missing delivery records, unsigned customer contracts, or absent environmental reports for tank assets. Identifying those gaps early keeps the schedule on track.
Three factors combine in ways that are unusual for other asset classes: cents-per-gallon margins move with rack prices outside the borrower's control, customer concentration in agricultural and commercial accounts can be severe, and environmental liability attached to bulk-plant and tank assets creates contingent costs that are difficult to bound. A credible study addresses all three explicitly rather than treating them as background risk.
No. A feasibility study is an independent analytical determination, not a credit approval or an agency endorsement. It documents whether projected cash flow supports debt service under the applicable coverage standard and identifies conditions that must be satisfied before that determination holds. Loan approval rests with the lender and, where applicable, the agency.
The core data room includes three years of historical financial statements, delivery records broken out by account and channel, a fleet schedule with age and ownership or lease terms, bulk-plant site documentation, executed or draft customer contracts, and environmental reports for any above-ground or underground storage tank assets. The firm identifies any gaps promptly after intake so the sponsor can cure them before the engagement clock starts.
Studies are prepared to the compliance standard of the specific program. SBA SOP 50 10 8 and USDA RD Staff Instruction 5001 have different coverage thresholds, documentation requirements, and conditions-precedent conventions. If a project is being presented to both channels simultaneously, the engagement scope is structured to satisfy both standards, and that is addressed in the fee quote at the outset.
The consultant builds delivered gallons from the actual customer base, establishes margin in cents per gallon by product and channel, models delivery route and fleet cost, and tests the working capital that inventory and customer credit consume. Coverage is then measured on gross profit rather than revenue, since revenue in this sector moves with commodity price while profit does not.
Because a distributor's revenue can double on a fuel price spike while gross profit stays flat and working capital deteriorates. Sales dollars therefore tell a lender very little about the credit. Volume and margin per gallon isolate the actual earning capacity of the business and make the projections testable against the operator's own delivery records.
Material accounts are examined for tenure, contract status, and historical volume. Where volume is not contracted, attrition is modeled explicitly rather than holding the account base flat, because fuel customers switch on price and service with low friction. For an acquisition, historical delivery records set the baseline; for a startup, only accounts secured in writing carry the base case.
Rising prices force the business to fund more expensive inventory and larger receivables at the same time, so a profitable distributor can breach coverage on liquidity alone. The study models the cash conversion cycle explicitly and tests borrowing-base and line-of-credit sizing against a defined price increase rather than at current cost, reporting whether committed facilities are sufficient.
They are read as executed. Branded contracts commonly carry volume commitments, image and facility obligations, and term or territorial restrictions that can trigger liability if volume falls short, and those obligations are modeled as cost and risk. Rebates, incentives, and conversion allowances are tied to the agreement creating them and tested for whether they survive the loan term.
No. This engagement covers wholesale, commercial, and fleet fueling distribution, where the analysis is delivered gallons, route cost, and trade credit. Retail forecourt projects turn on traffic capture, site access, and inside sales, and are addressed by the gas station and c-store study; highway fuel and amenity sites are addressed by the travel center and truck stop study.
From operating reality rather than a blended average: truck and trailer configuration, drops per day, average drop size, round-trip distance from the terminal or bulk plant, and driver cost including licensing and endorsement constraints. Cost is reported by route type, because small drops at long distance can consume the entire margin on a gallon.
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Wert-Berater, Inc. is an independent provider of feasibility studies and other related services. The firm does not provide financing or equity investment advice, and does not arrange, broker, or place debt or equity capital of any kind.
All appraisal assignments are performed by Bruce E. Jones, MAI, ASA-GC, BCA, CMEA, a member of the Appraisal Institute since 2006, a staff member of Wert-Berater, Inc. and owner of Special Purpose Realty Valuation.