The method, the definitions and the sources, published in full. A market report whose method you cannot inspect is an opinion with a chart on it; this page exists so that ours can be checked, argued with, and relied on in a credit file.
The method below is applied to every report an analyst prepares for us, whichever market it covers — the standard does not change with the scope you commission. You are emailed a written confirmation when the request is opened, and an analyst comes back to you within one business day to agree the scope, the price and a delivery date. Nothing is charged until that is agreed, and the finished report arrives as a personal download link rather than an attachment.
Every report follows the same sequence, and the sequence matters: coverage is established before analysis begins, so that no part of the report depends on a figure we had to invent.
This is the part of the method that differs most from conventional market data products. The coverage check is not a disclaimer at the back of the report; it is a gate at the front of the process, and it can stop the report being produced at all.
Each of the five evidence bands is graded as high, moderate, limited or unavailable for the selected property type and geography. A market that carries an unavailable band, or that falls below the minimum composite coverage threshold, is marked ineligible. Our reports desk will explain what would be required to cover it, and whether a commissioned analyst-prepared market report is the appropriate instrument instead.
Market capacity answers the question a pipeline figure alone cannot: is the space being built space the market can use? The calculation proceeds in three parts.
Supportable demand is estimated from the market’s own demand drivers — the size and growth of the occupier base for that cohort — and converted into a physical quantity of space, rooms or units at a stabilised operating level appropriate to the property type. Committed supply is existing competitive inventory plus the construction pipeline, with planned projects weighted by the likelihood they deliver rather than counted at face value. Capacity is the difference. A negative capacity is not automatically a negative finding, and a positive one is not automatically an opportunity; both are read against the market’s demonstrated absorption rate to establish how long the gap would take to close.
Market conditions only matter to a decision maker once they are expressed in the units the decision is made in. The report therefore carries cohort-level benchmarks on a per-square-foot or per-unit basis, with the distribution around each rather than a single point.
| Measure | What it establishes |
|---|---|
| Revenue per SF | Achievable gross revenue for the cohort at market-level performance, before deductions. |
| OpEx per SF | Operating expenses at the cohort’s scale in that market, including the local cost items — labour, utilities, insurance, property taxes — that vary materially by geography. |
| NOI per SF | Net operating income after operating expenses and before debt service and capital items. The primary comparability measure between markets. |
| CapEx per SF | Recurring capital requirement to hold the cohort at competitive standard. Frequently understated in underwriting and material to the tail. |
| Break-even occupancy | The occupancy at which revenue covers operating expenses and debt service. Converts the market question into a threshold question. |
| Discounted cash flow | Where the cohort supports it, present value of the modelled cash flow stream, reported per square foot so markets can be compared on a common basis. |
A market forecast expressed as one number carries a false precision that is difficult to defend in credit. Our analysis assigns each uncertain variable a range and a distribution shape derived from that market’s observed behaviour, then samples across those distributions many thousands of times.
The output is a distribution of outcomes reported at the tenth, twenty-fifth, fiftieth, seventy-fifth and ninetieth percentiles, together with the proportion of simulated outcomes falling below thresholds that matter — break-even occupancy being the usual one. Alongside it sits a sensitivity ranking identifying which variables the result actually depends on, and defined stress cases showing the effect of a specified adverse movement rather than a random one. Simulation does not create information that the underlying evidence does not contain; it makes the uncertainty in that evidence explicit instead of averaging it away.
Terms in commercial real estate are used inconsistently across the industry. These are the definitions this report applies.
| Term | Definition as used in our reports |
|---|---|
| Vacancy | Space physically unoccupied at the measurement date, expressed as a proportion of existing inventory. |
| Availability | Space being actively marketed, including occupied space offered for sublease or with a known forthcoming vacancy. Leads vacancy. |
| Net absorption | Change in occupied space over the period, move-ins less move-outs. Demand realised, not demand asserted. |
| Existing inventory | Completed competitive stock in the cohort and geography at the measurement date. |
| Under construction | Projects with construction physically commenced. Counted at full quantity. |
| Planned | Projects announced or permitted but not commenced. Weighted by likelihood of delivery, never counted at face value. |
| Market capacity | Supportable demand less committed supply, expressed in the physical unit of the property type. |
| Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR | For lodging: rooms sold as a proportion of rooms available; average daily rate across sold rooms; and revenue per available room, being the product of the two. RevPAR moves for two distinct reasons and the report separates them. |
| Stabilised | The performance level a cohort reaches after lease-up or ramp, used as the basis for capacity and operating benchmarks. |
Every quantitative statement in a report carries its source and the date the underlying series was current through. Where a figure is our own estimate rather than an observation, it is identified as such, and the basis for the estimate is stated.
U.S. Census Bureau, including the American Community Survey, County Business Patterns and the Building Permits Survey; the Bureau of Labor Statistics, including QCEW, LAUS and Current Employment Statistics; and the Bureau of Economic Analysis for regional income and output.
Permitting, planning and assessment records from the jurisdictions covering the market, which are the primary evidence for the construction pipeline and for planned development.
Published port, rail, highway and air freight activity where the cohort’s demand depends on it — material for manufacturing and logistics property, immaterial for most others, and used only where it is.
Commercial property inventory, occupancy and rate evidence from licensed data, used only in those markets a licence of ours actually covers. Being direct about it: we do not hold licensed inventory coverage for every market, and where we do not, the report is built from the public, permitting and engagement evidence above — or we decline the market outright. The coverage check tells you which of these sources sits behind the market you selected, before you order, rather than substituting a regional average for a reading we cannot take.
Evidence developed across our own completed studies and appraisals, used where it is applicable to the market and cohort, and identified when it is.
Unattributed aggregator figures, marketing material presented as research, and national averages applied to a local market. If a number cannot be sourced, it does not appear.
Reports are prepared and reviewed by Wert-Berater, Inc., an independent feasibility study, market research and valuation firm in continuous practice since 1998, with 3,969 completed studies and experience across all fifty states. Each report records the date it was prepared, the date it was last updated, and the date through which its underlying evidence was current — three dates that are routinely conflated elsewhere and that mean different things.
The firm is engaged by lenders, agencies, developers and investors, and is not compensated on the outcome of any transaction it analyses. No report is prepared on a contingent-fee basis.
A market risk report analyses market conditions. It does not inspect a property, does not opine on value, does not evaluate a borrower or a loan structure, and does not constitute a feasibility study for any programme purpose. Its conclusions are conditioned on the evidence available for that market at the date stated, and markets change. Where a financing decision requires a feasibility study or an appraisal, those are separate commissioned engagements — see our services.
Every report is prepared by an analyst, and every one is commissioned: our reports desk agrees the scope, the price and a delivery date with you before any work starts. Hotel and manufacturing markets are covered by our Market Risk Intelligence reports; the remaining classes are written to your brief as market reports, or taken as a special order.
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Wert-Berater, Inc. is an independent provider of feasibility studies and other related services. The firm does not provide financing or equity investment advice, and does not arrange, broker, or place debt or equity capital of any kind.
All appraisal assignments are performed by Bruce E. Jones, MAI, ASA-GC, BCA, CMEA, a member of the Appraisal Institute since 2006, a staff member of Wert-Berater, Inc. and owner of Special Purpose Realty Valuation.