1998Practice founded4,000+Client engagements$41.2 billionEvaluated project valueSince 1982Institutional underwritingMAI · ASA-GC · BCA · CMEAIn-house valuation designations
Wert-Berater, Inc. — Independent Feasibility Study Consultants
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Independent Feasibility Studies · Clean Energy

Biofuels & Renewable Fuels Feasibility Studies

Prepared for lenders, CDCs, and federal agencies to SBA SOP 50 10 8, USDA 7 CFR Part 5001, and conventional underwriting standards. Fiduciary duty runs to the lender and the agency, never the borrower. 4,000+ engagements since 1998 covering $41.2 billion in evaluated project value. So far in 2026: 41 engagements and $1.54 billion evaluated — 17 SBA, 11 USDA.

Watch: a short video overview — Biofuels & Renewable Fuels Feasibility Studies

The Feasibility Question

Biofuel feasibility is feedstock-spread analysis under policy exposure: the margin between feedstock cost and fuel value including credits, feedstock supply security within economic reach, offtake agreements and blending demand, and the policy instruments — RFS volumes, LCFS, tax credits — modeled at conservative value and duration. Ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF each carry distinct technology and margin profiles the study addresses specifically.

Methodology

The analysis combines feedstock supply mapping and pricing, credit and fuel price series, offtake review, and capital benchmarks by pathway. Spread sensitivity with reduced credit value is the controlling stress case.

Every Wert-Berater financial model is fully linked with no hardcoded values, so any reviewer can stress any input. Deliverables comprise a complete narrative report and the linked Excel model, with ten-year pro forma, sensitivity analysis at ±5, 10, and 15 percent, interest-rate stress from +0.5 to +3.0 percent, and ratio analysis benchmarked against RMA and IBISWorld data.

Lending Compliance

SBA engagements are prepared to SOP 50 10 8, including its debt-service-coverage minimums of 1.15x operating and 1.00x global. USDA engagements follow RD Staff Instruction 5001 across the Business & Industry, Community Facilities, REAP, and Value-Added Producer Grant programs. Conventional engagements are built to the lender's stated coverage standard, typically 1.20x. Clean-energy engagements are prepared to USDA 7 CFR Part 5001 where REAP and B&I apply — including the energy-production documentation, incentive analysis, and payback arithmetic REAP requires — and to conventional and institutional standards otherwise, with interconnection and incentive risk addressed directly rather than assumed away.

Experience

Representative clean-energy work includes a $52,688,000 green carbon project evaluation and renewable-energy feasibility within the firm's USDA REAP and B&I practice. Independence is non-negotiable: determinations follow the evidence and are not revised under pressure, and studies are built to pass lender, agency, and third-party review without exception items.

Scope & Deliverables for Biofuels & Renewable Fuels Feasibility Studies

A biofuel refinery feasibility study is not a generic capital-project analysis with the word “ethanol” inserted. The scope is built around the specific conversion pathway — corn-starch ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, soybean or waste-oil biodiesel, hydrotreated vegetable oil renewable diesel, or sustainable aviation fuel — because feedstock logistics, capital intensity, co-product revenue, and credit eligibility differ materially across pathways. The narrative report addresses each of those dimensions explicitly, not as a footnote.

  • Feedstock supply map: documented sourcing radius, seasonal availability, and contracted versus spot exposure by input type
  • Fuel and co-product revenue model: pathway-specific pricing series for fuel, distillers grains, glycerin, or other co-products as applicable
  • Credit and incentive schedule: RFS RIN value by category, LCFS credit where applicable, 45Z or predecessor tax credit, and REAP incentive arithmetic where the engagement is USDA-governed
  • Capital cost benchmark: installed-cost ranges by pathway and scale drawn from engineering and public-project data, not developer projections alone
  • Offtake and blending demand review: contractual coverage, counterparty quality, and uncontracted volume exposure
  • Ten-year pro forma with full sensitivity matrix: spread stress, credit haircut, and interest-rate shock layered independently and in combination
  • Explicit statement of conditions: the assumptions that must hold for the coverage ratios shown to be achievable

Every model is a fully linked Excel workbook with no hardcoded values, published to a secure client portal where it recalculates live when any input changes.

How Demand & Market Analysis Is Built for Renewable Fuels Projects

Demand for renewable fuels is not measured by counting local customers. It is measured by assessing the regulatory mandate that creates the market, the physical blending infrastructure that connects the plant to that market, and the competitive supply already positioned to serve it. The analysis works outward from those three anchors.

Mandate-driven demand begins with published EPA Renewable Fuel Standard volume obligations and, where the project sells into a state program, the relevant Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit schedule. Both are public regulatory records reviewed at their current values and stress-tested at reduced values, because mandate levels are subject to EPA rulemaking and court review.

Blending infrastructure is assessed through terminal operator records, rack pricing data, and publicly available pipeline and terminal maps that establish whether the plant can physically reach demand at a transportation cost the margin can absorb. Where rail or truck is the route to market, logistics cost enters the spread model directly.

Competitive supply is evaluated using EPA RFS registration data, state environmental permit records, and industry capacity databases that identify existing and announced production within the relevant fuel category. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data, Energy Information Administration production and stock reports, and trade association capacity surveys are the principal public sources. The goal is a defensible estimate of whether incremental supply from the proposed plant tightens or displaces into an already-supplied market.

The Assumptions That Decide Coverage in Biofuels & Renewable Fuels Feasibility Studies

Four inputs account for most of the variance in a renewable-fuel coverage ratio. Each is tested independently and in combination because their risks are correlated: a crush-margin compression event typically moves feedstock cost, fuel price, and credit value simultaneously in adverse directions.

  • Feedstock cost and basis risk: the spread between the commodity benchmark price and the delivered cost at the plant gate, including freight, shrink, and moisture adjustment; tested at widening basis scenarios reflecting supply-area competition
  • Fuel price net of transportation: the rack or spot price the plant actually receives after freight to the blending terminal; tested at reductions reflecting refinery-margin cycles independent of feedstock moves
  • Credit and incentive value: RIN prices, LCFS credit values, and tax credit rates modeled at a conservative haircut from current market; the controlling stress case removes or substantially reduces credit value to test whether the project survives on fuel economics alone
  • Capacity utilization and yield: actual throughput as a percentage of nameplate, and conversion yield per unit of feedstock; early-year ramp assumptions are compared against publicly documented startup curves for comparable facilities
  • Debt-service timing relative to construction: interest-during-construction, first-payment date, and working-capital adequacy for the feedstock-procurement cycle are each modeled at adverse timing

The sensitivity matrix runs each variable at ±5, 10, and 15 percent and interest rates from +0.5 to +3.0 percent, so a reviewer can locate the break-even input value for any assumption.

What SBA, USDA & Conventional Lenders Look for in a Renewable Fuels Study

Lenders and agencies reviewing a biofuel project raise a consistent set of concerns that differ from those applied to a retail or real-estate credit. Understanding those concerns shapes how the study is organized and what it must demonstrate.

SBA lenders applying SOP 50 10 8 require a 1.15x operating coverage minimum and a 1.00x global coverage minimum. For a commodity-margin business, the examiner focus is on whether the coverage ratio is durable across the feedstock-price cycle, not merely achievable at a single point in time. The study must show that the debt-service cushion survives the spread compressions documented in the historical record.

USDA Business & Industry and REAP reviewers add energy-production documentation requirements: the REAP application specifically requires a payback calculation, an energy-savings or production estimate, and an incentive analysis. The study addresses each of those elements as discrete sections, not as incidental commentary. Where the project involves a value-added agricultural commodity, the Value-Added Producer Grant eligibility analysis is incorporated.

Conventional lenders, typically underwriting to a 1.20x coverage standard, focus on offtake contract quality, counterparty creditworthiness, and the term match between debt maturity and the remaining life of any policy instrument supporting the margin. A credit that depends on a tax credit expiring in year four of a ten-year loan requires explicit treatment of the post-expiration cash flow, not an assumption that the credit will be extended.

Wert-Berater’s fiduciary duty runs to the lender and the reviewing agency. No fee is contingent on the finding, and no determination is revised under sponsor pressure.

Cost, Timeline & How a Biofuels Feasibility Study Engagement Runs

The engagement begins with a fixed fee quoted within one business day of inquiry. The fee does not change based on the outcome of the analysis, and no portion is contingent on a favorable finding. That structure is the mechanical expression of independence: an analyst whose fee depends on a positive conclusion has a conflict that no disclosure cures.

Delivery runs 10 to 15 business days from receipt of a complete data room. For a biofuel project, a complete data room includes the site and technology description, any engineering or process design documents available, feedstock supply agreements or letters of intent, offtake agreements or term sheets, the proposed capital structure and loan terms, three years of operating history if the project involves an acquisition or expansion, and the developer’s own projections if prepared. Rush delivery is available and quoted at the time of engagement.

Once the engagement opens, the financial model is published to a secure client portal. The model is a fully linked Excel workbook with no hardcoded values; every assumption cell is exposed and labeled. When the lender, agency reviewer, or sponsor updates an input — a revised feedstock contract price, a changed loan term, a new RIN price assumption — the model recalculates immediately. There is no need to request a revised report for routine sensitivity work.

The deliverable package comprises the bound narrative report, the live Excel model, the ten-year pro forma, the full sensitivity matrix, and an explicit statement of the conditions that must hold for the projections to be achievable. That statement of conditions is the document a credit officer reads first.

Frequently asked questions

How much does a biofuels feasibility study cost?

The fee is fixed and quoted within one business day of inquiry. It does not vary based on the outcome of the analysis, and no portion is contingent on a favorable finding. Because project scope, pathway complexity, and data-room completeness affect the work required, the firm quotes each engagement individually rather than publishing a schedule.

How long does a renewable fuels feasibility study take to complete?

Standard delivery is 10 to 15 business days from receipt of a complete data room. The clock starts when all required documents are received, not when the engagement opens. Rush delivery is available and priced at the time of engagement. Incomplete data rooms are the most common cause of delay.

What makes biofuel and renewable diesel projects hard to underwrite?

The margin is a spread between two volatile commodity prices — feedstock cost and fuel value — that can compress simultaneously. A significant portion of that margin often comes from policy instruments, such as RIN credits or tax credits, whose value and duration are subject to regulatory and legislative change. A credible study must demonstrate coverage at reduced or zero credit value, not only at current market levels.

Can a biofuels feasibility study be used for both SBA and USDA REAP applications?

Yes. The study is structured to satisfy SBA SOP 50 10 8 coverage requirements and USDA 7 CFR Part 5001 simultaneously where both programs apply. REAP-specific elements — energy-production documentation, payback arithmetic, and incentive analysis — are prepared as discrete sections that meet the program’s stated requirements, not embedded as general commentary.

What feedstock types and conversion pathways does the study cover?

The study addresses corn-starch ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, soybean-oil and waste-oil biodiesel, hydrotreated vegetable oil renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel. Each pathway carries a distinct capital cost profile, co-product revenue stream, and credit eligibility, and each is analyzed on its own terms rather than through a generic biofuel template.

Does a feasibility study guarantee that a loan will be approved?

No. A feasibility study is an independent analytical determination of whether a project’s projected cash flows support the proposed debt service under stated assumptions. Loan approval is the lender’s decision. The study is prepared to pass lender, agency, and third-party review, but it does not predetermine or guarantee any credit outcome.

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Legal disclosure. Wert-Berater, Inc. offices are mailing addresses only. Following the COVID-19 pandemic the firm has elected to work remotely; its office locations receive mail and are not staffed for visitors or in-person meetings. Headquarters mailing address: 1968 South Coast Hwy, Ste 2382, Laguna Beach, CA 92651.

Wert-Berater, Inc. is an independent provider of feasibility studies and other related services. The firm does not provide financing or equity investment advice, and does not arrange, broker, or place debt or equity capital of any kind.

All appraisal assignments are performed by Bruce E. Jones, MAI, ASA-GC, BCA, CMEA, a member of the Appraisal Institute since 2006, a staff member of Wert-Berater, Inc. and owner of Special Purpose Realty Valuation.

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