1998Practice founded4,000+Client engagements$41.2 billionEvaluated project valueSince 1982Institutional underwritingMAI · ASA-GC · BCA · CMEAIn-house valuation designations
Wert-Berater, Inc. — Independent Feasibility Study Consultants
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Independent Feasibility Studies · Manufacturing

Consumer Goods Feasibility Studies

Prepared for lenders, CDCs, and federal agencies to SBA SOP 50 10 8, USDA 7 CFR Part 5001, and conventional underwriting standards. Fiduciary duty runs to the lender and the agency, never the borrower. 4,000+ engagements since 1998 covering $41.2 billion in evaluated project value. So far in 2026: 41 engagements and $1.54 billion evaluated — 17 SBA, 11 USDA.

Watch: a short video overview — Consumer Goods Feasibility Studies

The Feasibility Question

Manufacturing feasibility joins market demand to production economics. The study establishes demand for the plant's output — contracted, identified, or market-derived — then tests the production model: capacity and utilization ramp, input cost structure, labor availability at the required skill level, and the capital budget against industry benchmarks. Consumer-goods plants are analyzed on channel and retailer concentration, brand versus private-label economics, and the marketing investment the revenue model assumes. Because USDA and SBA reviewers read manufacturing studies against job-creation and rural-impact criteria as well as repayment, the study documents employment, wage levels, and local economic effect to the standard the program requires.

Methodology

Methodology combines industry production and pricing data, consumer spending and category retail data, RSMeans location-adjusted facility budgets, BLS occupational wage data for the staffing model, and RMA and IBISWorld operating benchmarks. The financial model carries the utilization ramp, input-cost sensitivity, and program coverage tests across the firm's standard stress discipline, with every assumption sourced.

Every Wert-Berater financial model is fully linked with no hardcoded values, so any reviewer can stress any input. Deliverables comprise a complete narrative report and the linked Excel model, with ten-year pro forma, sensitivity analysis at ±5, 10, and 15 percent, interest-rate stress from +0.5 to +3.0 percent, and ratio analysis benchmarked against RMA and IBISWorld data.

Lending Compliance

SBA engagements are prepared to SOP 50 10 8, including its debt-service-coverage minimums of 1.15x operating and 1.00x global. USDA engagements follow RD Staff Instruction 5001 across the Business & Industry, Community Facilities, REAP, and Value-Added Producer Grant programs. Conventional engagements are built to the lender's stated coverage standard, typically 1.20x. Manufacturing reaches us predominantly through USDA B&I — where rural plant economics and job creation align with program purpose — alongside SBA 504 for owner-occupied facilities and conventional lending; Value-Added Producer Grant studies are prepared to 7 CFR Part 5001 where agricultural producers integrate forward into processing.

Experience

The firm's manufacturing and processing record spans USDA B&I and SBA engagements nationwide, including cold-chain, food-system, and industrial projects; manufacturing studies are prepared with the same fully linked financial models and stress discipline as every Wert-Berater engagement. Independence is non-negotiable: determinations follow the evidence and are not revised under pressure, and studies are built to pass lender, agency, and third-party review without exception items.

Before you commission a study

Screening the industrial market before committing to a full engagement? Manufacturing Market Risk Intelligence is a report prepared by our analysts to a published structure: supply, demand and the operating conditions in one market, with coverage shown before the order is taken. It is a market risk view, not a feasibility determination on your project, and it does not replace the study described on this page.

What a Consumer Goods Feasibility Study Covers: Scope and Deliverables

A consumer goods manufacturing feasibility study is not a generic plant analysis dropped into a new address. The scope is built around the specific product category, the channel through which finished goods reach end buyers, and the production model the borrower intends to operate. That means the study must resolve questions that are particular to this asset class before a lender can underwrite repayment with confidence.

Deliverables for a consumer goods engagement include:

  • Category demand analysis — documented demand for the specific product type, differentiated by channel (mass retail, club, specialty, foodservice, direct-to-consumer, or private label), with contracted volume identified separately from market-derived projections.
  • Capacity and utilization schedule — a year-by-year ramp from commissioning through stabilization, tied to the production line configuration and shift model the borrower has specified.
  • Input cost build — raw material, packaging, labor, utilities, and co-manufacturing costs assembled from sourced benchmarks, not borrower estimates alone.
  • Capital budget review — equipment, facility fit-out, and working capital requirements benchmarked against RSMeans and industry data.
  • Channel and customer concentration analysis — identification of retailer or distributor concentration risk and the contractual or relationship basis for projected volume.
  • Brand versus private-label economics — margin structure, slotting and promotional cost assumptions, and the marketing spend the revenue model requires.
  • Program-specific documentation — employment counts, wage levels, and rural economic impact narratives where USDA or SBA program criteria require them.

How Demand Analysis Is Built for Consumer Goods Feasibility Studies

Demand analysis for a consumer goods plant begins with the product category, not with the borrower’s sales forecast. The analyst establishes total addressable category volume using retail scanner data, trade association shipment reports, and USDA Economic Research Service consumption statistics where the product falls within an agricultural category. Category data is then segmented by geography, channel, and price tier to isolate the segment the plant will actually serve.

Competitive supply analysis examines existing domestic production capacity in the category, drawing on public company filings, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service processing data, FDA food facility registration records, and trade press capacity announcements. Where private-label production is relevant, co-manufacturer directories and industry association membership lists provide a starting inventory of competing supply. The analysis distinguishes capacity that is genuinely available to the market from capacity that is captive to a vertically integrated brand.

Distribution access is evaluated through retailer deduction structures, distributor margin requirements, and the borrower’s documented channel relationships. Where the revenue model depends on retail placement, the study examines category reset calendars and the lead time between production readiness and first purchase order. Contracted volume — purchase agreements, letters of intent, or co-manufacturing arrangements — is identified and weighted separately from market-derived projections, and the conditions attached to each contract are disclosed in the narrative.

The Assumptions That Drive Consumer Goods Feasibility Study Outcomes

A small number of inputs determine whether a consumer goods plant clears its coverage hurdles. Identifying those inputs and stress-testing each one is the analytical work that separates a credible study from a document that merely presents the borrower’s own projections in a bound cover.

  • Utilization ramp rate — the speed at which the plant reaches stabilized throughput drives revenue in years one through three, when debt service is at its highest relative to cash flow. The ramp is tested against comparable plant start-up histories and the borrower’s contracted volume base.
  • Net realized price — gross shelf or invoice price less trade spend, slotting allowances, promotional deductions, and freight determines actual revenue per unit. Each deduction category is sourced and benchmarked against category norms.
  • Input cost structure — raw material and packaging costs are the largest variable cost line for most consumer goods plants. The model tests input cost at plus 5, 10, and 15 percent to establish the margin of safety before coverage falls below program minimums.
  • Labor availability and wage rate — BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics data for the relevant metropolitan or nonmetropolitan area is used to test whether the staffing model is achievable at the budgeted wage, particularly for food-safety-certified or skilled-trade positions.
  • Working capital cycle — retailer payment terms of 30 to 60 days against raw material payment obligations create a cash conversion gap that must be funded; the model sizes that gap and tests it under slower-than-projected ramp scenarios.
  • Marketing and promotional spend — for branded consumer goods, the investment required to achieve projected velocity at retail is modeled explicitly rather than treated as a residual.

What Lenders and Agencies Look for in Consumer Goods Feasibility Studies

SBA reviewers evaluating a consumer goods plant under SOP 50 10 8 focus first on whether demand is documented rather than assumed. A plant sized to serve a market the borrower has not yet accessed carries a different risk profile than one with executed purchase agreements or a demonstrated co-manufacturing relationship. The study must show how the utilization ramp connects to specific, identified demand, and the financial model must clear 1.15x operating coverage and 1.00x global coverage at the stress cases the program requires.

USDA Business & Industry reviewers apply RD Staff Instruction 5001 and add a layer of scrutiny around rural economic impact: job creation, wage levels relative to the local labor market, and the plant’s role in a rural supply chain. For Value-Added Producer Grant applications, the study must also document the price premium or expanded market access that processing creates for the agricultural producer, and must tie that benefit to the specific commodity and geography the grant covers.

Conventional lenders typically require 1.20x coverage and place additional weight on customer concentration: a plant whose revenue is 60 percent or more dependent on a single retailer or distributor presents a covenant and renewal risk that the study must address directly. Lenders also examine the working capital facility alongside the term debt, because a consumer goods plant with slow retailer payment cycles can be cash-constrained even when it is technically profitable. The study documents each of these concerns with sourced data and a stated conclusion.

Cost, Timeline, and How a Consumer Goods Feasibility Study Engagement Runs

The fixed fee for a consumer goods feasibility study is quoted within one business day of receiving the project description. The fee does not change based on the finding, and no portion of it is contingent on a favorable determination or a closed loan. That structure is not a marketing position; it is the condition that makes the study credible to a lender or agency reviewer who needs to know the analyst had no financial interest in the outcome.

Standard delivery is 10 to 15 business days from receipt of a complete data room. The data room for a consumer goods engagement typically includes the borrower’s business plan, any executed or draft purchase agreements, equipment quotes and facility plans, the proposed capital budget, and three years of historical financials where the borrower has operating history. Rush delivery is available for time-sensitive SBA or USDA application deadlines.

Every engagement is published to a secure client portal. The financial model — a fully linked Excel workbook with no hardcoded values — remains live in the portal after delivery, so the lender, the agency reviewer, or the borrower can change any input and watch every output recalculate in real time. The narrative report includes an explicit statement of conditions: the assumptions on which the determination rests and the circumstances under which it would change. That statement is not boilerplate; it is the analyst’s documented professional judgment, and it is what a third-party reviewer reads first when the study is submitted for credit approval.

Frequently asked questions

How much does a consumer goods manufacturing feasibility study cost?

The fee is fixed and quoted within one business day of receiving the project description. It does not vary based on the finding, and no portion is contingent on loan approval. Because scope drives cost, the quote is specific to the product category, plant size, and program — SBA, USDA, or conventional — rather than a published range that may not reflect the actual engagement.

How long does it take to complete a consumer goods feasibility study?

Standard delivery is 10 to 15 business days from receipt of a complete data room. The most common cause of delay is an incomplete data room: missing equipment quotes, an unsigned purchase agreement, or the absence of historical financials. Rush delivery is available when SBA or USDA application deadlines require it. The timeline and any conditions are confirmed in writing before the engagement begins.

What makes consumer goods plants harder to underwrite than other manufacturing projects?

Three factors distinguish consumer goods from industrial manufacturing: net realized price is rarely equal to gross invoice price once trade spend, slotting, and promotional deductions are accounted for; utilization ramps slowly because retail placement follows category reset calendars, not production readiness; and customer concentration — dependence on one or two major retailers — creates covenant risk that lenders must evaluate alongside repayment capacity.

Can a consumer goods feasibility study be used for both an SBA loan and a USDA B&I guarantee?

Yes. The study is built to the more demanding of the two standards and documents the requirements of each program in the same narrative. SBA engagements are prepared to SOP 50 10 8; USDA engagements follow RD Staff Instruction 5001. Where a borrower is pursuing both programs simultaneously, the scope is confirmed at engagement so both sets of criteria are addressed in a single deliverable.

What demand documentation does a lender expect to see in a consumer goods feasibility study?

Lenders expect contracted volume — executed purchase agreements or letters of intent — to be identified and weighted separately from market-derived projections. Where contracted volume is limited, the study must show how the utilization ramp is supported by documented market demand in the specific category, channel, and geography the plant will serve, with competitive supply analyzed to establish that the market can absorb additional production.

Does the feasibility study cover the working capital need for a consumer goods plant?

Yes. Retailer payment terms of 30 to 60 days against near-term raw material and labor obligations create a cash conversion gap that must be sized and funded. The financial model quantifies that gap under the base case and under slower-than-projected ramp scenarios, and the narrative addresses how the working capital facility is structured relative to the term debt the lender is evaluating.

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Wert-Berater, Inc. is an independent provider of feasibility studies and other related services. The firm does not provide financing or equity investment advice, and does not arrange, broker, or place debt or equity capital of any kind.

All appraisal assignments are performed by Bruce E. Jones, MAI, ASA-GC, BCA, CMEA, a member of the Appraisal Institute since 2006, a staff member of Wert-Berater, Inc. and owner of Special Purpose Realty Valuation.

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