Project Type · Disposition & Exit
Disposition & Exit Analysis
The exit determines realized return. We evaluate it as a decision among alternatives, not a single sale price.
Scope
What this analysis is for
Owners often frame exit as a question of price. A more useful frame compares three paths: continue to hold, refinance and hold, or sell. Each produces a different combination of return, risk and liquidity, and each depends on market conditions, operating performance and the depth of the buyer pool at the time of sale.
Wert-Berater prepares independent exit analysis that compares those paths on consistent assumptions and documents the operating and market evidence that buyers and their lenders will examine.
Analytical framework
Exit analysis
- 01
Current value and market conditions
Value indicators and the state of the capital market for the asset type.
- 02
Buyer universe
Likely buyer types, their return requirements and financing availability.
- 03
Competitive supply
Competing assets on the market or delivering during a sale process.
- 04
Operating performance and value creation
Performance achieved during the hold against the acquisition case.
- 05
Hold versus sell
Forward returns from continuing to hold compared with sale proceeds today.
- 06
Refinance alternative
Liquidity through refinancing while retaining ownership.
- 07
Timing
Effect of market timing, lease events and capital needs on value.
- 08
Exit assumptions, transaction costs and net proceeds
Net proceeds and return implications by path.
Evidence
What we compare
Each line is tested against independent market and operating evidence, not accepted from the sponsor or seller model.
| Variable | What we test |
|---|---|
| Forward hold return | Return from holding another period on current value. |
| Net sale proceeds | Price less transaction costs, debt payoff and prepayment. |
| Refinance liquidity | Proceeds available while retaining upside. |
| Timing risk | Sensitivity of value to lease rollover and market supply. |
Application
Who engages exit analysis
Funds at end of term
Sale, continuation or recapitalization alternatives.
Family offices
Liquidity and rebalancing decisions.
REITs
Portfolio recycling candidates.
Owners of mature assets
Hold versus sell after business plan completion.
Work product
What you receive
- Hold versus sell versus refinance comparison
- Buyer universe and market conditions analysis
- Net proceeds and return analysis
- Evidence package for buyer diligence
Scope boundary. Wert-Berater does not act as broker or market assets for sale. Exit analysis is independent of any transaction commission.
Analytical continuity
After the Investment: Independent Performance Monitoring
A credible monitoring record of performance against the original underwriting is among the most useful evidence a seller can give a buyer's diligence team.
The analytical relationship does not have to end when the feasibility study is delivered. Wert-Berater can continue monitoring the asset against the original underwriting assumptions, updating market conditions, testing coverage, identifying performance variances and maintaining a recurring analytical record.
-
Individual Asset Monitoring
- Revenue
- Expenses
- NOI
- DSCR
- Occupancy
- Market rents
- Competitive supply
- Value
- Original underwriting assumptions
-
Watchlist Monitoring
- DSCR deterioration
- NOI deterioration
- Occupancy
- Revenue
- Expenses
- Market conditions
- Collateral / value
- Stabilization
- Refinancing risk
-
Construction Monitoring
- Progress
- Budget
- Cost-to-complete
- Schedule
- Change orders
- Draws
- Remaining costs
- Lease-up
- Stabilization
-
Portfolio Monitoring
Most relevant here- Portfolio performance
- Risk
- Concentration
- Market exposure
- Annual review
- Re-underwriting
- Watchlist
- Portfolio-level trends
Related analysis
Continue through the lifecycle
Discuss the analysis before you commit to it.
A briefing is a working conversation about the decision, the evidence available and the scope that would answer it. There is no obligation, and nothing is subscribed.