Enplanements drive it, ride-share erodes it, and price-versus-shuttle-time decides who wins it: off-airport parking is derived-demand underwriting.
Off-airport parking demand derives entirely from the airport it serves: enplanement trends, the origin-passenger share that actually parks, and the on-airport garage’s capacity and pricing set the market’s size and ceiling. The competitive analysis is a capacity census — land area, stall counts, and density across the existing off-airport set — locating the subject’s proposed capacity inside the observed market rather than beside it. Ride-share substitution is the structural risk and gets stressed explicitly: the pro forma must survive penetration rates above today’s.
The operating model is yield management: daily and economy tiers, online pre-booking’s share and its channel costs, shuttle frequency as both expense line and competitive weapon. Ramp matters — parking facilities build occupancy as travelers discover them — so monthly cash-flow modeling carries the early period, and the lender’s comfort on initial operating risk is built from exactly that resolution.
A recent $4,600,000 engagement serving George Bush Intercontinental applied the full battery — competitor land-area/capacity/density table, zoning and regulatory review, construction-cost validation, monthly operating summaries, discounted cash flow, and sensitivity — structured precisely for the question committees ask of parking assets: how long is the ramp, and what does coverage look like during it.
Engagements are typically initiated by the borrower, with lender or CDC confirmation obtained before work begins — institutions apply differing rules, so sponsors should confirm the required path with their lending contact — and are delivered in 10 to 15 business days from complete project data, and built to the program framework that governs the credit — SBA SOP 50 10 8 coverage minimums of 1.15x operating and 1.00x global, the 37-factor structure of USDA RD Instruction 5001, or the 1.20x convention of conventional credit policy — with a ten-year pro forma, sensitivity at ±5/10/15 percent, rate stress to +3.0 percent, and Monte Carlo analysis as standard equipment.
President, Wert-Berater, Inc. — independent feasibility study consultants since 1998. More than 4,000 feasibility studies completed across all 50 states and internationally, evaluating $40.2 billion in project value for SBA, USDA, EB-5, conventional, and institutional financing decisions. Fiduciary duty runs to the lender and agency in every engagement.
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